Highlights from the Financial Times – Asian Investor Outlook 2017 in Singapore
On 18th January 2017, Financial Times held the Asian Investor Outlook 2017 at the prestigious Fullerton Hotel in Singapore. Attended by some Asia’s leading investment professionals, prominent experts like Taimur Baig, Managing Director and Chief Economist Asia of Deutsche Bank and Alex Ng, Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Pacific provided exclusive insights of Asia’s investment strategies in the coming months.
Forecasting the Year 2017
With the Donald Trump’s presidential victory and Brexit vote a few months earlier, the global economy in 2017 faces uncertainty and more questions by monetary polices, rising de-globalisation and technological change. Henry Sender, Chief Correspondent of International Finance for Financial Times chaired the panel discussions.
In Search for Yield
In the first panel discussion by a distinguished experts, Taimur Baig, Managing Director and Chief Economist Asia Deutsche Bank, Bryan Goh, Chief Investment Officer of Bordier & Cie Singapore, Ng Yong Ngee, Chief Executive Officer and Founding Partner of Tahan Capital Management began the hottest investment topic in Asia: “What’s on the horizon in the search for yield.”
Searching for yield is extremely difficult in an environment of low growth, deflation and negative interest rates in both Japan and Europe.
All Eyes on United States & Donald Trump
Taimur Baig, Managing Director and Chief Economist Asia Deutsche Bank highlighted that “tax cuts in US are expected but other countries will follow suit with tighter liquidity in place.”
“Reflationary trade is the main concern in the world at present,” said Ng Yong Ngee Chief Executive Officer and Founding Partner of Tahan Capital Management, who also spent 16 years at UBS where he last helmed the Head of Emerging Market Asia fixed income business. Reflationary trade refers to President Donald Trump’s emphasis on lowing taxes and infrastructure investments, often referred as the initial recovery phase from a recession and an expansionary fiscal policy.
When quizzed about the US Dollar, Bryan Goh, Chief Investment Officer of Bordier & Cie in Singapore added: “When a Republican was in power, there was not a strong US dollar … … which may hint that the dollar may fall during the Trump’s presidency.”
Spotlight On China’s Debt
Tetsuya Iguchi Editor-in-Chief for Asia, Nikkei Inc presented the curious case of an increasing China debt.
The China debt has taken 8.5 years to reach the same level of total debt to GDP with US. But US has taken 33 years to accumulate the same amount of debt. Debt servicing in China will be a huge problem if it is allowed to escalate.
No Escaping President Donald Trump
At the last panel discussions with Asia’s top investment experts including Alex Ng Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Pacific and Helen Qiao, Chief Economist Greater China and Head of Asia Economic Research ex-Japan of BOAML, once again emphasised on how the new President Donald Trump will impact emerging markets in 2017, especially the trade policies and fiscal stimulus.
In 2017, all eyes are clearly on President Donald Trump, or are the investment opportunities elsewhere? Are the investment experts telling it all?
The Asian Investor Outlook is organised by Financial Times. Now in its third year, it brought together leading institutional investors, economists and asset managers to discuss the key factors that will define investment in the next 12 months, as a new, unpredictable US administration takes office.
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