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China Property Watch: Worst-Case Projection of 6.4% Total Mortgage at Risks Amount to $356 Billion, Representing 2.5% of China GDP

4th August 2022 | Hong Kong

In the worst-case scenario in the current China property mortgage crisis, S&P Global Ratings estimated that the total mortgage at risk amounted to 6.4% of total mortgages ($356 billion, CNY 2.4 trillion), representing around 2.5% of China total GDP ($14 trillion).  Earlier in July 2022, property buyers & suppliers have or are starting movements to stop property payments for delayed projects, with the Chinese government, central bank & regulators stepping in with emergency meetings to ensure liquidity for banks and for banks to support financing for the completion of property projects.  A week ago, it is reported China homebuyers have started a movement to stop paying monthly mortgages (housing loans) for delayed projects, with China property stocks & bonds prices declining.  China largest banks including Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and China Construction Bank & Industrial Bank (ICBC) have responded that the associated risks are controllable, and accounting for 0.012% of total mortgages (ABC, Agricultural Bank of China). Yicai: “Buyers in around 150 housing projects across 20 provincial-level regions have banded together to demand that developers restart building and that the houses are delivered within a reasonable period of time otherwise they will stop repaying their bank loans, according to the latest data. Most of these unfinished projects are in smaller second, third and fourth-tier cities were there is a glut of properties on the market.”

“ Worst-Case Projection of 6.4% Total Mortgage at Risks Amount to $356 Billion, Representing 2.5% of China GDP “


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