International Monetary Fund (IMF) Increased China GDP Growth Forecast to +5% in 2025 (Previous +4.8%) & +4.5% in 2026 (Previous +4.2%) Driven by China Macroeconomic Policy Stimulus Measures & Lower-than-Expected Tariffs on China Exports, Key Policy Priority is to Transit to Consumption-Led Growth Model Which is a Key Objective in China 15th Five-Year Plan
13th December | Hong Kong
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased China GDP growth forecast to +5% in 2025 (Previous +4.8%) & +4.5% in 2026 (Previous +4.2%), driven by China macroeconomic policy stimulus measures & lower-than-expected tariffs on China exports. IMF recommends China key policy priority is to transit to a consumption-led growth model which is a key objective in China 15th five-year plan. IMF (10/12/25): “1) IMF staff projects China’s economy to grow by 5.0 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026. These projections reflect an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the October WEO, driven by welcome macroeconomic policy stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on China’s exports. 2) Despite resilient growth, imbalances remain significant amid weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures. Low inflation relative to trading partners has led to real exchange rate depreciation, contributing to strong exports and rising current account surplus. 3) The key policy priority is to transition to a consumption-led growth model, which is one of the government’s stated objectives in the 15th Five-Year Plan. In staff’s view, this transition requires more urgent and forceful expansionary macroeconomic policies, reforms to reduce elevated household savings, and a scaling back of inefficient investment and unwarranted industrial policy support. Such a policy package will also reduce external imbalances. 4) Beyond these concerted policy efforts, tackling elevated risks and sustaining robust medium-term growth calls for: (i) reforms to fiscal and financial frameworks; (ii) balance sheet cleanup in the general government, property, and financial sectors; and (iii) advancing market-oriented reforms, including opening up the service sector and fostering competitive neutrality across firms … … An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra, Mission Chief for China, visited Beijing and Shanghai from December 1 to 10 for the 2025 Article IV Consultation. The team held constructive discussions with senior officials from the government, the People’s Bank of China, private sector representatives, and academics on economic developments, risks, and policy priorities. IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, joined the discussions and met with Premier LI Qiang, Vice Premier HE Lifeng, PBoC Governor PAN Gongsheng, Minister of Finance LAN Fo’an, Minister of Commerce WANG Wentao, and other senior officials. IMF First Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Dan Katz, also joined part of the mission and met senior officials.”
“ International Monetary Fund (IMF) Increased China GDP Growth Forecast to +5% in 2025 (Previous +4.8%) & +4.5% in 2026 (Previous +4.2%) Driven by China Macroeconomic Policy Stimulus Measures & Lower-than-Expected Tariffs on China Exports, Key Policy Priority is to Transit to Consumption-Led Growth Model Which is a Key Objective in China 15th Five-Year Plan “
![](https://www.caproasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Air-Charter-Service-728x90-1.png")
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Increased China GDP Growth Forecast to +5% in 2025 (Previous +4.8%) & +4.5% in 2026 (Previous +4.2%) Driven by China Macroeconomic Policy Stimulus Measures & Lower-than-Expected Tariffs on China Exports, Key Policy Priority is to Transit to Consumption-Led Growth Model Which is a Key Objective in China 15th Five-Year Plan
Caproasia Users
- Manage $20 million to $30 billion of assets
- Invest $3 million to $300 million
- Advise institutions, billionaires, UHNWs & HNWs
Caproasia Platforms | 11,000 Investors & Advisors
- Caproasia.com
- Caproasia Access
- Caproasia Events
- The Financial Centre | Find Services
- Membership
- Family Office Circle
- Professional Investor Circle
- Investor Relations Network
Monthly Roundtable & Networking
Family Office Programs
The 2026 Investment Day
- March - Hong Kong
- March - Singapore
- April - Hong Kong
- April - Singapore
- July - Hong Kong
- July - Singapore
- Sept- Hong Kong
- Sept - Singapore
- Oct- Hong Kong
- Nov - Singapore
- Visit: The Investment Day | Register: Click here
Caproasia Summits
- The Institutional Investor Summit
- The Investment / Alternatives Summit
- The Private Wealth Summit
- The Family Office Summit
- The CEO & Entrepreneur Summit
- The Capital Markets Summit
- The ESG / Sustainable Investment Summit
