Caproasia Institute 2022 Recession Survey: 83% View We Are in a Recession or Will Have a Recession, 78% Have Prepared Portfolio & 67% Expect Positive Returns
27th December 2022 | Singapore
Caproasia Institute has released the 2022 Recession Survey with 147 leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices surveyed in October 2022, providing their views on a recession in 2022 or 2023, if they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities, and expected returns on their assets, investments & portfolio. On a recession in 2022 or 2023, 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession. 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, data in next few months will show, due to data lag. 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year. On portfolio & investments, 78.23% have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities. On returns, 67.2% are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains. For the 2022 Recession Survey, 51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million, 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion, 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion, 1.36% manage more than $100 billion, 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients. The 147 respondents comes from 27 countries. 71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas. 53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%). See key findings below | Learn More: List of Economic Crisis From 1900 & 2022
“ 83% View We Are in a Recession or Will Have a Recession, 78% Have Prepared Portfolio & 67% Expect Positive Returns “
Caproasia Institute – 2022 Recession Survey
Caproasia Institute conducted a survey on recession with leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices. A total of 147 respondents worldwide participated in the survey over 3 weeks (4th Oct to 26th Oct 2022). The Survey:
- Views of a recession in 2022/2023
- If they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities
- Expected returns over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023
Key Findings
- We have a Recession – 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.
- Already in a Recession – 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, data in next few months will show, due to data lag.
- 6 months to 1 year Recession – 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year
- On Investment – 78.23% have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities.
- On Expected Returns – 67.2% are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains
Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):
- No Recession – Slightly more larger portfolio investors view that we will not have a recession (21% vs 9.52% overall)
- Committed Position Actions on Recession – Larger portfolio (> $1 billion) have taken a slightly more committed stance on recession (Yes, No), and thus larger portfolio have taken more portfolio actions to either increase investments, or decrease investments.
- Getting Cautious – None of larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to 147 respondents of 14.29%
- Higher Returns & Larger Losses – Larger portfolio expect higher returns, and larger losses compared to all 147 respondents. Notably, 0% expect minimal change to portfolio, compared to 8.16% of overall 147 respondents
” None of larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to 147 respondents of 14.29% “
Larger Portfolio:
- 19 of 147 respondents manage more than $1 billion
- 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion
- 1.36% manage more than $100 billion
The 2022 Recession Survey Summary
1) On a Recession in 2022/2023
- 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.
- 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, and data in next few months will show, due to data lag.
- 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year
- 12.24% view that we will have a mid-to-long term recession, lasting 1 to 5 years
- 10.20% view that something will trigger a major crisis that will cause a severe recession (Eg. 2008 Subprime, 1997 Asian Currency Crisis)
Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):
Overall, versus small portfolio, slightly more larger portfolio investors view that we will not have a recession (21% vs 9.52%).
2) De-risk investments, &/or ready for investment opportunities?
- 78.23% of respondents have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities.
- Only 21.77% of respondents have not, are not, or will not take any actions.
Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):
Overall, larger portfolio have taken a slightly more committed stance on recession (Yes, No), and thus larger portfolio have taken more portfolio actions to either increase investments, or decrease investments. Also, 0% (None) of the larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to overall 147 respondents of 14.29%.
3) Expected Returns on Investments (1 Year, End 2023)
- 67.2% of respondents are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains
- 21% expect positive returns of 20% or more of portfolio gains
- 24.2% expect negative returns (losses) ranging from -1% to more than 50% of portfolio losses
Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):
Overall, larger portfolio expect higher returns, and larger losses compared to all 147 respondents, with 0% expecting minimal change to portfolio, compared to 8.16% of overall 147 respondents
The 2022 Recession Survey is released by Caproasia Institute, with 147 leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices surveyed in October 2022.
The 2022 Recession Survey
Caproasia Institute conducted a survey on recession with leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices. A total of 147 respondents worldwide participated in the survey over 3 weeks (4th Oct to 26th Oct 2022). The 2022 Recession Survey asked respondents on their view of a recession in 2022/2023 and if they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities. Respondents also provided their expected returns on their assets, investments & portfolio over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023. The 147 respondents comes from 27 countries. 71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas. 53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%).
51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million, 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion, 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion, 1.36% manage more than $100 billion, 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients, 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size.
The Survey:
- Views of a recession in 2022/2023
- If they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities
- Expected returns over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023
Region:
The 147 respondents comes from 27 countries. 71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas. 53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%).
- 71.4% are from Asia-Pacific
- 16.3% from Europe
- 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai)
- 9.5% from Americas.
27 Countries:
- Asia-Pacific – Singapore, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand
- Europe – United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, Spain, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Czech Republic, Morocco, Turkey
- Middle East – Dubai
- Americas – United States, Canada, Argentina, Venezuela
Portfolio Size / AUM:
- 51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million
- 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion
- 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion
- 1.36% manage more than $100 billion
- 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients
- 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size
Portfolio Size / AUM: Breakdown
- $3 million to $20 million – 37.41%
- $20 million to $100 million – 13.61%
- $100 million to $300 million – 9.52%
- $300 million to $1 billion – 9.52%
- $1 billion to $10 billion – 6.80%
- $10 billion to $30 billion – 3.40%
- $30 billion to $100 billion – 1.36%
- More than $100 billion – 1.36%
- Indirectly managing / advising – 16.33%
- Undisclosed – 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size
Caproasia Institute is the data and research institute of Caproasia, a financial information technology with the mission to drive the future of Asia through financial information & services. Research is a lagging activity. What you do with or without the research, agree or disagree with the research is a leading activity. The art & science of research. Imagination over evidence. Actions over data. Change over research. Future over history.
Caproasia Financial Media covers capital markets, investments & private wealth in Asia.
Caproasia is a financial information technology co. founded in 2014. The mission is to drive the future of Asia.
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