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Caproasia Institute 2022 Recession Survey: 83% View We Are in a Recession or Will Have a Recession, 78% Have Prepared Portfolio & 67% Expect Positive Returns

27th December 2022 | Singapore

Caproasia Institute has released the 2022 Recession Survey with 147 leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices surveyed in October 2022, providing their views on a recession in 2022 or 2023, if they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities, and expected returns on their assets, investments & portfolio.  On a recession in 2022 or 2023, 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.  29.25% view that we are already in a recession, data in next few months will show, due to data lag.  31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year.  On portfolio & investments, 78.23% have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities.  On returns67.2% are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains.  For the 2022 Recession Survey, 51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million, 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion, 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion, 1.36% manage more than $100 billion, 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients.  The 147 respondents comes from 27 countries.  71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas.  53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%).  See key findings below | Learn More: List of Economic Crisis From 1900 & 2022

“ 83% View We Are in a Recession or Will Have a Recession, 78% Have Prepared Portfolio & 67% Expect Positive Returns “

 



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Caproasia Institute – 2022 Recession Survey

Hong Kong | Leading Financial Centre in Asia

Caproasia Institute conducted a survey on recession with leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices.  A total of 147 respondents worldwide participated in the survey over 3 weeks (4th Oct to 26th Oct 2022).   The Survey:

  1. Views of a recession in 2022/2023
  2. If they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities
  3. Expected returns over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023

 

Key Findings

  • We have a Recession83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.  
  • Already in a Recession – 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, data in next few months will show, due to data lag.
  • 6 months to 1 year Recession – 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year
  • On Investment – 78.23% have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities.
  • On Expected Returns  67.2% are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains

Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion): 

  • No Recession – Slightly more larger portfolio investors view that we will not have a recession (21% vs 9.52% overall)
  • Committed Position Actions on Recession – Larger portfolio (> $1 billion) have taken a slightly more committed stance on recession (Yes, No), and thus larger portfolio have taken more portfolio actions to either increase investments, or decrease investments.  
  • Getting Cautious – None of larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to 147 respondents of 14.29%
  • Higher Returns & Larger Losses – Larger portfolio expect higher returns, and larger losses compared to all 147 respondents.  Notably, 0% expect minimal change to portfolio, compared to 8.16% of overall 147 respondents

” None of larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to 147 respondents of 14.29% “

 

Larger Portfolio: 

  • 19 of 147 respondents manage more than $1 billion
  • 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion
  • 1.36% manage more than $100 billion

 

The 2022 Recession Survey Summary

1) On a Recession in 2022/2023

  • 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.  
  • 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, and data in next few months will show, due to data lag.
  • 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year
  • 12.24% view that we will have a mid-to-long term recession, lasting 1 to 5 years
  • 10.20% view that something will trigger a major crisis that will cause a severe recession (Eg. 2008 Subprime, 1997 Asian Currency Crisis)

Larger Portfolio Insights  (More than $1 billion): 

Overall, versus small portfolio, slightly more larger portfolio investors view that we will not have a recession (21% vs 9.52%).

 

2) De-risk investments, &/or ready for investment opportunities?

  • 78.23% of respondents have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities. 
  • Only 21.77% of respondents have not, are not, or will not take any actions.

Larger Portfolio Insights  (More than $1 billion): 

Overall, larger portfolio have taken a slightly more committed stance on recession (Yes, No), and thus larger portfolio have taken more portfolio actions to either increase investments, or decrease investments.  Also, 0% (None) of the larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to overall 147 respondents of 14.29%.

 

3) Expected Returns on Investments (1 Year, End 2023)

  • 67.2% of respondents are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains
  • 21% expect positive returns of 20% or more of portfolio gains
  • 24.2% expect negative returns (losses) ranging from -1% to more than 50% of portfolio losses

Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):

Overall, larger portfolio expect higher returns, and larger losses compared to all 147 respondents, with 0% expecting minimal change to portfolio, compared to 8.16% of overall 147 respondents

 

The 2022 Recession Survey is released by Caproasia Institute, with 147 leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices surveyed in October 2022.

 

The 2022 Recession Survey

Caproasia Institute conducted a survey on recession with leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices.  A total of 147 respondents worldwide participated in the survey over 3 weeks (4th Oct to 26th Oct 2022).  The 2022 Recession Survey asked respondents on their view of a recession in 2022/2023 and if they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities.  Respondents also provided their expected returns on their assets, investments & portfolio over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023.  The 147 respondents comes from 27 countries.  71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas.  53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%).

51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million, 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion, 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion, 1.36% manage more than $100 billion, 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients, 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size.

The Survey:

  1. Views of a recession in 2022/2023
  2. If they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities
  3. Expected returns over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023

Region:

The 147 respondents comes from 27 countries.  71.4% are from APAC, 16.3% from Europe, 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai) and 9.5% from Americas.  53% of the respondents are from Singapore (34%) & Hong Kong (19%). 

  • 71.4% are from Asia-Pacific
  • 16.3% from Europe
  • 2.7% from Middle-East (Dubai)
  • 9.5% from Americas.

27 Countries:

  • Asia-Pacific – Singapore, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand
  • Europe – United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, Spain, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Czech Republic, Morocco, Turkey
  • Middle East – Dubai
  • Americas – United States, Canada, Argentina, Venezuela

Portfolio Size / AUM:

  • 51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million
  • 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion
  • 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion
  • 1.36% manage more than $100 billion
  • 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients
  • 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size

Portfolio Size / AUM: Breakdown

  • $3 million to $20 million – 37.41%
  • $20 million to $100 million – 13.61%
  • $100 million to $300 million – 9.52%
  • $300 million to $1 billion – 9.52%
  • $1 billion to $10 billion – 6.80%
  • $10 billion to $30 billion – 3.40%
  • $30 billion to $100 billion – 1.36%
  • More than $100 billion – 1.36%
  • Indirectly managing / advising – 16.33%
  • Undisclosed – 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size

Caproasia Institute is the data and research institute of Caproasia, a financial information technology with the mission to drive the future of Asia through financial information & services.  Research is a lagging activity.  What you do with or without the research, agree or disagree with the research is a leading activity.  The art & science of research.  Imagination over evidence.  Actions over data.  Change over research.  Future over history.

Caproasia Financial Media covers capital markets, investments & private wealth in Asia. 

Caproasia is a financial information technology co. founded in 2014.  The mission is to drive the future of Asia. 




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