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The 2022 Recession Series: Survey, Reports, Outlook, Insights & Commentaries

28th December 2022 | Singapore

The 2022 Recession Series is a special coverage on a possible recession in 2022 & 2023, with an exclusive survey by Caproasia Institute, reports, outlook, insights & commentaries on recession.  Are we entering into a recession?  Will it be a global or regional recession? How do you manage wealth, assets & investments in a recession? Is staying invested the best way to navigate a recession?  Which product may fail that will trigger a systemic collapse?  Will there be lawsuits, cover-ups, resulting in billions of losses?  Investments without government or large institutional investors direct or indirect support will be most at risk.  What should investment managers, advisors and professional investors do?  Which products / sectors are most at risk?  What will be the new implications on tax, legal and risks?  Will there be a united or divided global front to manage the recession?  See below for 2022 Recession Series special coverage – Survey, Reports, Outlook, Insights & Commentaries on Recession | Visit The 2022 Recession Series

” Are we entering into a recession?  Will it be a global or regional recession? “

 



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Oct 2022 – International Monetary Fund Head Kristalina Georgieva on Recession

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva

” The world faces growing recession risks and a fundamental shift away from relative stability to an age of breakdown in international relations and more frequent natural disasters … … if central banks move too aggressively to tamp down price pressures, it could trigger a prolonged economic downturn “

 

Oct 2022 – International Monetary Fund Head Kristalina Georgieva on Recession

1) Caproasia Institute 2022 Recession Survey

Hong Kong | Leading Financial Centre in Asia

Caproasia Institute has released the 2022 Recession Survey with 147 leading investment managers, advisors, professional investors & family offices surveyed in October 2022, providing their views on a recession in 2022 or 2023, if they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities, and expected returns on their assets, investments & portfolio | Read More

Portfolio Size / AUM: Breakdown: 51.02% of respondents manage $3 million to $100 million, 19.04% manage $100 million to $1 billion, 11.56% manage $1 billion to $100 billion, 1.36% manage more than $100 billion, 16.33% of respondents indirectly manage assets or advise clients, 0.68% (1 respondent, family office) decline to disclose portfolio size.

The Survey:

  1. Views of a recession in 2022/2023
  2. If they have de-risk their investments &/or prepared for investment opportunities
  3. Expected returns over the next 1 year or till the end of 2023

Key Findings

  • We have a Recession – 83.66% view that we are already in a recession or will have a recession.  
  • Already in a Recession – 29.25% view that we are already in a recession, data in next few months will show, due to data lag.
  • 6 months to 1 year Recession – 31.97% view that we will have a short & mild recession, that will last around 6 months to 1 year
  • On Investment – 78.23% have taken actions, preparing, getting cautious, or ready for investment opportunities.
  • On Expected Returns  67.2% are expecting positive returns ranging from 1% to more than 50% of portfolio gains

Larger Portfolio Insights (More than $1 billion):

  • No Recession – Slightly more larger portfolio investors view that we will not have a recession (21% vs 9.52% overall)
  • Committed Position Actions on Recession – Larger portfolio (> $1 billion) have taken a slightly more committed stance on recession (Yes, No), and thus larger portfolio have taken more portfolio actions to either increase investments, or decrease investments.  
  • Getting Cautious – None of larger portfolio responded with “Getting Cautious” compared to 147 respondents of 14.29%
  • Higher Returns & Larger Losses – Larger portfolio expect higher returns, and larger losses compared to all 147 respondents.  Notably, 0% expect minimal change to portfolio, compared to 8.16% of overall 147 respondents

 

2) List of Economic Crisis from 1900 – 2022

Economic crisis happens more frequently than you think.  Most of us would recall the recent 2020 Global Pandemic and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and perhaps from history lesson, 1929 Great Depression.  How about the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis or the 1970s Energy Crisis?  How many major or notable economic crisis had happened in the last 122 years from 1900 to 2022?  Did you live through the difficult times?  Who do you know that had been impacted?  How can you learn from the many crisis to help you manage your investments?  Read More

 

3) IMF World Economic Outlook Report Oct 2022:

Global GDP growth in 2022 forecast at 3.2%, 2023 at 2.7%, avoiding a global recession (major economy) except for Germany (2023 GDP: -0.3%), Italy (2023 GDP: -0.2%), and Russia (2022: -3.4%, 2023: -2.3%). The largest economy United States is expected to grow 1.6% in 2022 and 1% in 2023, and China GDP to grow 3.2% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023.  Read More

” IMF – Global GDP growth in 2022 forecast at 3.2%, 2023 at 2.7%, avoiding a global recession (major economies) “

 

4) Schroders Annual Institutional Investor Study 2022

Study with 770 Global institutional investors with $27.5 trillion assets averaging $35.7 billion.  Global institutional investors are seeing multiple risk factors on portfolio performance in the next 12 months, as the Ukraine crisis, rising inflation and the uncertainty triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic hits return expectations for the next 5 years.  Read More

 

On Real Estate

5) Knight Frank APAC Real Estate Outlook 2023

2023 Key Risks to Real Estate Growth – Escalation of conflict in Ukraine, Worse-than-anticipated deterioration of economic conditions in Europe, Hard landing in the US, China remains mired in Capital outflows Heightened economic doldrums, Capital outflows turn disruptive and Heightened currency volatility. Read More

 

6) UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2022 Report

Of the 25 cities, 9 cities face bubble risk and 10 cities are overvalued. Top financial centres Zurich, Hong Kong & Tokyo are facing bubble risk, and London, San Francisco, New York and Singapore are overvalued, and only Dubai is fairly valued. The top 9 cities facing bubble risks are Toronto, Frankfurt, Zurich, Munich, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Amsterdam, Tel Aviv & Tokyo.  Read More

 

On Cost of Living

7) The Economist Worldwide Cost of Living 2022 Report

Most Expensive Cities are Singapore & New York, Effect of Higher Interest Rate Kicks-in in 2023 and Consumer Price Inflation to Fall from 9.4% to 6.5% in 2023.  Read More

 

Expert Commentary

8) Schroders Strategist Tina Fong: Why This Economic Cycle is Different?

Tina Fong: Recessions, however, are usually accompanied by a meaningful pick-up in the unemployment rate, and this has not occurred. Instead, the unemployment rate is at a multi-decade low. Indeed, the strength of the labour market speaks of an economy in its expansion phase, albeit now clearly pushing at capacity limits. Other economic indicators, however, such as business surveys (deteriorating) and the rate of change in inflation (still accelerating), suggest an economy already experiencing that particularly difficult type of slowdown, stagflation.  Read More

“ The unemployment rate is at a multi-decade low “

 

The 2022 Recession Series is a special coverage by Caproasia.   Visit The 2022 Recession Series.




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