IMF World Economic Outlook 2026: Global GDP to Grow +3.3% with +3.8% Inflation in 2026, United States +2.4%, UK +1.3%, China +4.5%, India +6.4%, Japan +0.7%, Hong Kong +1.9% & Singapore +1.9% in 2026, 2026 Global Outlook – 1) Risks Remain Titled to Downside, Global Economy Remarkably Resilient, 2) Upside: Activity Could be Lifted by AI-Related Investment, 3) Downside: Reevaluation of AI Growth Expectations, Tensions from Trade, Geopolitics or Domestic, Deficits & Debts, 4) United States Effective Tariff Rate Underlying Projections 18.5%, Rest of World Tariff Rate 3.5%, 5) Prices for Energy Commodities Expected to Fall 7% in 2026, World Volume to Decrease 2.6% in 2026

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IMF World Economic Outlook 2026: Global GDP to Grow +3.3% with +3.8% Inflation in 2026, United States +2.4%, UK +1.3%, China +4.5%, India +6.4%, Japan +0.7%, Hong Kong +1.9% & Singapore +1.9% in 2026, 2026 Global Outlook – 1) Risks Remain Titled to Downside, Global Economy Remarkably Resilient, 2) Upside: Activity Could be Lifted by AI-Related Investment, 3) Downside: Reevaluation of AI Growth Expectations, Tensions from Trade, Geopolitics or Domestic, Deficits & Debts, 4) United States Effective Tariff Rate Underlying Projections 18.5%, Rest of World Tariff Rate 3.5%, 5) Prices for Energy Commodities Expected to Fall 7% in 2026, World Volume to Decrease 2.6% in 2026

5th February | Hong Kong

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the IMF World Economic Outlook 2026 (January Update), providing key insights into global economy & GDP growth in 2026 & 2027.  In 2026, Global GDP to grow +3.3% with +3.8% inflation in 2026, with United States +2.4%, UK +1.3%, China +4.5%, India +6.4%, Japan +0.7%, Hong Kong +1.9% & Singapore +1.9% in 2026.  2026 Global Outlook – 1) Risks remain titled to downside, global economy remarkably resilient, 2) Upside: activity could be lifted by AI-related investment, 3) Downside: reevaluation of ai growth expectations, tensions from trade, geopolitics or domestic, deficits & debts, 4) United States effective tariff rate underlying projections 18.5%, rest of world tariff rate 3.5%, 5) Prices for energy commodities expected to fall 7% in 2026, world volume to decrease 2.6% in 2026.  See below for key findings & summary | View report here

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” IMF World Economic Outlook 2026: Global GDP to Grow +3.3% with +3.8% Inflation in 2026, United States +2.4%, UK +1.3%, China +4.5%, India +6.4%, Japan +0.7%, Hong Kong +1.9% & Singapore +1.9% in 2026, 2026 Global Outlook – 1) Risks Remain Titled to Downside, Global Economy Remarkably Resilient, 2) Upside: Activity Could be Lifted by AI-Related Investment, 3) Downside: Reevaluation of AI Growth Expectations, Tensions from Trade, Geopolitics or Domestic, Deficits & Debts, 4) United States Effective Tariff Rate Underlying Projections 18.5%, Rest of World Tariff Rate 3.5%, 5) Prices for Energy Commodities Expected to Fall 7% in 2026, World Volume to Decrease 2.6% in 2026 “

IMF World Economic Outlook 2026: Global GDP to Grow +3.3% with +3.8% Inflation in 2026, United States +2.4%, UK +1.3%, China +4.5%, India +6.4%, Japan +0.7%, Hong Kong +1.9% & Singapore +1.9% in 2026, 2026 Global Outlook – 1) Risks Remain Titled to Downside, Global Economy Remarkably Resilient, 2) Upside: Activity Could be Lifted by AI-Related Investment, 3) Downside: Reevaluation of AI Growth Expectations, Tensions from Trade, Geopolitics or Domestic, Deficits & Debts, 4) United States Effective Tariff Rate Underlying Projections 18.5%, Rest of World Tariff Rate 3.5%, 5) Prices for Energy Commodities Expected to Fall 7% in 2026, World Volume to Decrease 2.6% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the IMF World Economic Outlook 2026 (January Update), providing key insights into global economy & GDP growth in 2026 & 2027.   See below for key findings & summary | View report here

IMF World Economic Outlook 2026

1) 2026 GDP Forecast

GDP Growth Forecast (2026 / 2027):

• Global: +3.3% / +3.2%
• Advanced Economies: +1.8% / +1.7%
• Emerging Market and Developing Economies: +4.2% / +4.1%

Global Inflation Forecast (2026 / 2027): +3.8% / +3.4%

2026 / 2027 GDP Growth forecast in Americas: 

1. United States: +2.4% / +2%
2. Canada: +1.6 / +1.9%
3. Brazil: +1.6% / +2.3%
4. Mexico: +1.5% / +2.1%

2026 / 2027 GDP Growth forecast in Europe: 

1. United Kingdom: +1.3% / +1.5%
2. Germany: +1.1% / +1.5%
3. France: +1% / +1.2%
4. Italy: +0.7% / +0.7%
5. Spain: +2.3% / +1.9%
6. Netherlands: +1.2% / +1.4%
7. Switzerland*: +1.6% / NA
8. Russia: +0.8% / +1% 

2025 April Update*

2026 / 2027 GDP Growth Forecast in APAC: 

1. China: +4.5% / +4%
2. India: +6.4% / +6.4%
3. Japan: +0.7% / +0.6%
4. South Korea: +1.9% / +2.1% 
5. Hong Kong*: +1.9% / NA
6. Singapore*: +1.9% / NA
7. Indonesia: +5.1% / +5.1%
8. Malaysia: +4.3% / +4.3%
9. Thailand: +1.6% / +2.2%
10. Philippines: +5.6% / +5.8%
11. Vietnam*: +4% / NA
12. Australia: +2.1% / +2.2%
13. New Zealand*: +2.7% / NA

2025 April Update*

2026 / 2027 GDP Growth Forecast in Middle East: 

1. UAE*: +5% / NA
2. Saudi Arabia: +4.5% / +3.6%
3. Israel*: +3.6% / NA
4. Egypt: +4.7% / +5.4%
5. Iran: +1.1% / +1.6%
6. Iraq*: +1.4% / NA
7. Qatar*: +5.6% / NA
8. Kuwait*: +3.1% / NA

2025 April Update*

2) Top Economies by GDP in 2025

Top 15 Economies in the World (GDP):

1. United States – $31.8 trillion
2. China – $20.6 trillion
3. Germany – $5.3 trillion
4. India – $4.5 trillion
5. Japan – $4.4 trillion
6. United Kingdom – $4.2 trillion
7. France – $3.5 trillion
8. Italy – $2.7 trillion
9. Canada – $2.4 trillion
10. Russia – $2.5 trillion
11. Brazil – $2.2 trillion
12. Mexico – $2 trillion
13. Spain – $2 trillion
14. South Korea – $1.9 trillion
15. Australia – $1.9 trillion

Top 15 Economies in Asia-Pacific (GDP):

1. China – $20.6 trillion
2. India – $4.5 trillion
3. Japan – $4.4 trillion
4. South Korea – $1.9 trillion
5. Australia – $1.9 trillion
6. Indonesia – $1.5 trillion
7. Taiwan – $971 billion
8. Singapore – $606 billion
9. Thailand – $561 billion
10. Philippines – $533 billion
11. Vietnam – $511 billion
12. Bangladesh – $519 billion
13. Malaysia – $505 billion
14. Hong Kong – $446 billion
15. Pakistan – $410 billion

Top 10 Economies in Middle East (GDP):

1. Turkey – $1.5 trillion
2. Saudi Arabia – $1.3 trillion
3. Israel – $666 billion
4. UAE – $601 billion
5. Egypt  – $399 billion
6. Iran – $375 billion
7. Iraq – $273 billion
8. Qatar – $239 billion
9. Kuwait – $162 billion
10. Oman – $108 billion

Source (GDP): IMF 2025

3) 2026 Global Economy

• Global GDP – To increase to +3.3% in 2026, and +3.2% in 2027
• Global Inflation – To decrease to +3.8% in 2026, and +3.4% in 2027

4) 2026 Global Outlook – January

A) Global Outlook – January Update

1. 2026 Outlook – Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. 
2. Upside – Activity could be further lifted by AI-related investment and eventually transform into sustainable growth if faster AI adoption translates into strong productivity gains and increased business dynamism. Activity could also be supported by a sustained easing in trade tensions. 
3. Downside – Reevaluation of productivity growth expectations about AI could lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction. Trade tensions could flare up.  Domestic political tensions or geopolitical tensions could erupt.  Larger fiscal deficits and high public debt could put pressure on long-term interest rates 
4. Key Observations – Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI).  Trade tensions have continued to abate but remain subject to occasional flare-ups. Global financial conditions are still accommodative.  Global economy has continued to be remarkably resilient.  Global trade has remained relatively robust.  Global inflation has been largely steady. 
5. Trade – US Supreme Court is widely expected to deliver a decision in early 2026 on the president’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.  Prices for energy commodities are expected to fall by about 7% in 2026.  Global growth is expected to remain steady, with the momentum in high-tech sectors set to slow.  World trade volume growth is expected to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026 and increase to 3.1% in 2027. 
6. Tariff – US effective tariff rate underlying the projections is 18.5%, compared with 18.7% in the 2025 October forecast.   Corresponding effective tariff rate for the rest of the world is unchanged at 3.5%. 

B) Policies recommendations / priorities:

1. Rebuilding fiscal capacity and maintaining public debt sustainability are crucial, especially as pressing spending needs persist. At a minimum, commitment to credible medium-term fiscal consolidation is required. 
2. Countries should aim to bolster fiscal revenues, rationalize expenditures, and strengthen expenditure efficiency by, among other things, crowding in private investment. 
3. Responses to negative demand shocks should be drawn up without deviating from medium-term fiscal sustainability objectives. 
4. Any discretionary fiscal interventions must be strictly targeted toward those firms and households most affected by adverse shocks and include explicit sunset provisions that make the actions temporary. 
5. Industrial policies must be precisely targeted to address specific market failures and clearly defined externalities and be subject to periodic cost-benefit analyses. 
6. Clear, consistent communication from central banks is crucial to navigating this unpredictable environment. 
7. With heightened uncertainty and fragilities in asset valuations, strong prudential oversight is needed to preserve financial stability. To stabilize expectations and encourage investment in a broader set of sectors, countries should make reducing policy-driven uncertainty a priority. They should establish and adhere to transparent and coherent trade policy frameworks, aided by pragmatic cooperation.
8. Elevating medium-term growth prospects remains the most effective strategy for resolving macroeconomic dilemmas. Structural reforms targeting labor markets, education, regulatory frameworks, and competition will drive productivity, potential output, and job creation. 

6) IMF World Economic Outlook 2026 Forecast – January Update

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