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Managing Your First Crisis in this Decade: 2020

The start of a new decade and you face one of the worst crisis in recent years.  How do you manage a crisis that you can’t control?  How do you deal with the effects of a full-blown crisis?

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Full Speed to Stop the Crisis

Monitoring Investments

Full Speed to Stop the Crisis from Deepening

Governments, Central banks and Economists are busy trying to figure out how to effectively stop the crisis from deepening.  They are trying to contain a fast-declining economy, keep it running, and prevent it from growing into a severe long-term crisis.

” The financial market has been thrown into a clear decline “

The financial market has been thrown into a clear decline.  The decline reflects declining future revenue, profit, business opportunities, credit & financing problems and ability to stay solvent ( bankruptcy).   In other words, will companies be reporting profit in the next quarter?  Will companies be announcing a 20% or 50% drop in revenue?

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The lack of liquidity is also usual in a fast-selling market, reflecting an efficient market where there are less buyers and more sellers.  Spreads also widen, especially for less traded financial instruments.


Buy Sell 101 – How low can a share price drop?

Portfolio Advisory
Buy Sell 101 – How low can a share price drop?
If a share or security price drop from $100 to $60, there may be a lot of buyers at $60. Whether the price will drop from $60 to $30, it depends if there are waiting buyers below $60 or if the buyers at $60 are long only and will not buy anymore shares regardless of price. Then sellers who need to sell can’t find buyers at $60 and will try to sell at $50, $40, $30, $20 … … and so on.

But there should be net asset value or fundamentals of the stock, isn’t it? Or the market is oversold?

The simple litmus test is – if we provide you $100 million financing at 0% interest to buy the shares at the current market price, will you personally guarantee the $100 million loan? You can also decide when to return the loan: in 1 year, 2 years or 5 years? How about in 10 years?

The price and the duration you are willing to agree on is your perceived net asset value or fundamentals, not someone else perceived price. So you take the risks. And you reap the rewards or you go bankrupt, unless you have more than $100 million to begin with. This is how options are also priced: market price + premium* + tenor (* could be a discount).

” A prediction about the direction of the stock market tells you nothing about where stocks are headed, but a whole lot about the person doing the predicting ”

~ Warren Buffett


Defending & Supporting Prices at Critical Level

Yield Curve
Defending & Supporting Prices at Critical Level

One of the monetary tool that most central banks is using temporarily, is to do asset purchase in the open market.  This is important in the short-term to keep asset prices from dropping.

In other words, it prevents bond prices or listed companies share prices from dropping further, which will affect credit ratings that will affect their ability to renew loans or having to pay higher interests for existing loans.  (A parallel comparison is to prevent homeowners from going into negative equity, which will trigger cash top-up.)

” Large Investment Managers are obligated to stay invested “

Large fund management firms and asset management firms are also obligated to stay invested or buy up more to support asset prices (Especially in their home countries or in countries in which governments and pension funds had invested into their funds).  This also allow some Hedge Funds and Traders to take advantage of the situation and generate returns from central banks capital injection and asset managers open-market purchase.

Whether you are managing or advising clients in capital markets, investments or private wealth, your portfolio asset value are likely dropping or facing margin calls.  Your IPO deals are also getting called off.  Your portfolio companies might also be in need of cash injections.

Will you also lose clients and investors?  Are you also divided with your peers over what is next and what to do next?

Most investment managers and financial advisors may not have access to the relevant tools or have the experience or know-how to navigate.

Even if they have, they may not have the courage to make the call.  If you are managing a portfolio with a 3 to 5 years outlook, what do you do?  If you are managing a private equity fund or working on an IPO 18 months from now, you can only hope for the best, and prevent the companies or deals from collapsing.  If you are working on distressed assets, this is a great time for you.


We are in a Bear Market

Financial crisis. Unemployment. Young businessman holding sign Need Job outdoors


We are in a Bear Market

The reality is, the stock market is not in a bull market.  It is not in a neutral market.  It is in a bear market.  The economy is facing a recession where spending will decrease.

Now that you have faced reality, it is time to get to work and focus on things that are important to your clients now.   We have researched and are putting together useful information to help you navigate this crisis.

It is not going to get easier as you deal with more uncertainties everyday.  But no doubt, like all great bankers, financial professionals and investment managers, you will emerge stronger with this crisis.


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